{"id":715,"date":"2021-11-08T10:42:13","date_gmt":"2021-11-08T09:42:13","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/4cool.cz\/?p=715"},"modified":"2021-11-08T10:42:14","modified_gmt":"2021-11-08T09:42:14","slug":"ceny-rostou-tri-otazky-ktere-pomohou-predpovedet-trend","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/4cool.cz\/?p=715","title":{"rendered":"Ceny rostou: T\u0159i ot\u00e1zky, kter\u00e9 pomohou p\u0159edpov\u011bd\u011bt trend"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Zd\u00e1 se, \u017ee u\u017e nejsme daleko od psychologick\u00e9 hranice, kdy inflace za\u010d\u00edn\u00e1 znepokojovat ekonomick\u00e9 subjekty. Strach, \u017ee firmy p\u0159enesou zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00ed sv\u00fdch n\u00e1klad\u016f do cen fin\u00e1ln\u00edch produkt\u016f, odbory, kter\u00e9 po\u017eaduj\u00ed masivn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00ed plat\u016f, d\u016fchodci, kter\u00fdm se p\u0159ehodnocen\u00ed jejich d\u016fchod\u016f zd\u00e1 nedostate\u010dn\u00e9. I ve\u0159ejnost s rostouc\u00edm znepokojen\u00edm sleduje stoupaj\u00edc\u00ed trend spot\u0159ebitelsk\u00fdch cen. Co znepokojuje m\u011bnov\u00e9 org\u00e1ny, kter\u00e9 maj\u00ed na starosti formulov\u00e1n\u00ed protiinfla\u010dn\u00edch politik a vl\u00e1du, kter\u00e1 \u0159\u00edd\u00ed hospod\u00e1\u0159skou politiku, je inflace, kter\u00e1 odr\u00e1\u017e\u00ed trval\u00e9 dopady na ekonomiku. Jin\u00fdmi slovy, inflace, kter\u00e1 zde z\u016fstane. Ro\u010dn\u00ed m\u00edra j\u00e1drov\u00e9 inflace, kter\u00e1 nezahrnuje volatiln\u00ed polo\u017eky, jako jsou energie a potraviny, se v z\u00e1\u0159\u00ed vy\u0161plhala na 4,9 procenta, co\u017e je nejv\u00edce od z\u00e1\u0159\u00ed 2008, ale m\u00edrn\u011b pod tr\u017en\u00edmi odhady na \u00farovni 5 procent.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00e9 je posoudit, zda se pozorovan\u00e9 trendy (jadern\u00e1 i \u010dist\u00e1 inflace) udr\u017e\u00ed iv budoucnosti. Na to mus\u00edme analyzovat t\u0159i ot\u00e1zky:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bude \u0161ok zp\u016fsoben\u00fd zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00edm cen pokra\u010dovat del\u0161\u00ed dobu?
Existuje mo\u017enost, \u017ee zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00ed cen vstup\u016f (zdroj\u016f vyu\u017e\u00edvan\u00fdch ve v\u00fdrob\u011b) se nakonec p\u0159enese do spot\u0159eby (co\u017e by se prom\u00edtne do CPI v p\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u00edch m\u011bs\u00edc\u00edch)?
Hroz\u00ed infla\u010dn\u00ed spir\u00e1la?
Pokud hled\u00e1me odpov\u011b\u010f na prvn\u00ed ot\u00e1zku, vzhledem k pohyb\u016fm na mezin\u00e1rodn\u00edch energetick\u00fdch trz\u00edch se nezd\u00e1, \u017ee by se ceny v kr\u00e1tkodob\u00e9m horizontu upravily, kv\u016fli nerovnov\u00e1ze mezi sv\u011btovou popt\u00e1vkou a nab\u00eddkou. Nav\u00edc na severn\u00ed polokouli p\u0159ich\u00e1z\u00ed zima, co\u017e je \u0161patn\u00fd \u010das ke sn\u00ed\u017een\u00ed spot\u0159eby. Je t\u0159eba m\u00edt na pam\u011bti, \u017ee pokud bude cenov\u00fd \u0161ok p\u0159etrv\u00e1vat, v\u0161echny firmy, ale p\u0159edev\u0161\u00edm ty s intenzivn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed spot\u0159ebou energie, se budou sna\u017eit prom\u00edtnout zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00ed n\u00e1klad\u016f do sv\u00fdch cen.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Jedn\u00edm z prediktor\u016f r\u016fstu spot\u0159ebitelsk\u00fdch cen je r\u016fst pr\u016fmyslov\u00fdch cen. Ceny pr\u016fmyslov\u00fdch v\u00fdrobc\u016f pro tuzemsko v z\u00e1\u0159\u00ed 2021 mezim\u011bs\u00ed\u010dn\u011b vzrostly o 1,4 %. Meziro\u010dn\u011b, podle \u00fadaj\u016f Statistick\u00e9ho \u00fa\u0159adu SR, ceny pr\u016fmyslov\u00fdch v\u00fdrobc\u016f pro tuzemsk\u00fd trh vzrostly o 8,5%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Firmy ne\u010del\u00ed jen rostouc\u00edm cen\u00e1m energi\u00ed, ale tak\u00e9 dopravy \u010di jin\u00fdch z\u00e1kladn\u00edch produkt\u016f pro pr\u016fmysl, jako jsou polovodi\u010de, jejich\u017e v\u00fdpadek m\u00e1 zna\u010dn\u00fd dopad pro n\u011bkter\u00e9 v\u00fdrobn\u00ed \u0159et\u011bzce. Vliv na n\u00e1klady tedy tla\u010d\u00ed inflaci p\u0159es velkoobchodn\u00ed trhy, ale p\u0159enesou se tato zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00ed i na kone\u010dn\u00e9 spot\u0159ebitele? Podle toho, jak zareaguje popt\u00e1vka. Jak\u00e1 je v sou\u010dasnosti agreg\u00e1tn\u00ed popt\u00e1vka? Popt\u00e1vka, kterou p\u0159ekazil COVID-19, se mobilizuje s n\u00e1vratem k norm\u00e1lu pomoc\u00ed odkl\u00e1dan\u00e9 spot\u0159eby a \u00faspor dom\u00e1cnost\u00ed. Popt\u00e1vka se nav\u00edc m\u016f\u017ee zn\u00e1sobit, pokud existuj\u00ed o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed o budouc\u00edm zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00ed cen, v reakci \u010deho\u017e bude spot\u0159ebitel utr\u00e1cet v\u00edce. V n\u011bkter\u00fdch odv\u011btv\u00edch siln\u011b zasa\u017een\u00fdch pandemi\u00ed, jako je cestovn\u00ed ruch, byly letn\u00ed v\u00fdsledky lep\u0161\u00ed, ne\u017e se o\u010dek\u00e1valo, navzdory ni\u017e\u0161\u00ed p\u0159\u00edtomnosti zahrani\u010dn\u00edch turist\u016f. Sice to m\u00e1 je\u0161t\u011b daleko od \u00farovn\u00ed z roku 2019, p\u0159ece v\u0161ak jde o d\u016fkaz r\u016fstu spot\u0159eby.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ceny rostou: T\u0159i ot\u00e1zky, kter\u00e9 pomohou p\u0159edpov\u011bd\u011bt trend<\/p>\n\n\n\n

K popt\u00e1vce dom\u00e1cnost\u00ed je t\u0159eba p\u0159ipo\u010d\u00edtat i ve\u0159ejn\u00e9 v\u00fddaje, kter\u00e9 porostou ve v\u0161ech ekonomik\u00e1ch v\u010detn\u011b Slovenska. K evropsk\u00fdm fond\u016fm se dostaneme v roce 2022, co\u017e d\u00e1le p\u0159il\u00e9v\u00e1 olej do ohn\u011b infla\u010dn\u00edho kotle.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A v neposledn\u00ed \u0159ad\u011b jsou zde infla\u010dn\u00ed spir\u00e1ly, nab\u00eddka, popt\u00e1vka nebo oboj\u00ed, kter\u00e9 podobn\u011b jako kysl\u00edk rozdm\u00fdchaj\u00ed ohe\u0148 inflace.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n

Tyto spir\u00e1ly nejsou ni\u010d\u00edm jin\u00fdm ne\u017e v\u00fdsledkem snahy ur\u010dit\u00fdch ekonomick\u00fdch subjekt\u016f chr\u00e1nit se p\u0159ed ztr\u00e1tami zp\u016fsoben\u00fdmi inflac\u00ed. N\u00e1r\u016fst v\u00fdrobn\u00edch n\u00e1klad\u016f se na trh p\u0159enese snadn\u011bji, pokud nebude konkurence (nap\u0159\u00edklad ve slu\u017eb\u00e1ch) nebo bude v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed popt\u00e1vka po zbo\u017e\u00ed a slu\u017eb\u00e1ch.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Skute\u010dnost, \u017ee spot\u0159eba nen\u00ed v\u00fdrazn\u011b sn\u00ed\u017eena, neznamen\u00e1, \u017ee tato zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00ed \u017eivotn\u00edch n\u00e1klad\u016f nezp\u016fsobuj\u00ed po\u017eadavek na zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00ed plat\u016f jako kompenzaci za ztr\u00e1tu kupn\u00ed s\u00edly, nebo zlep\u0161en\u00ed d\u016fchod\u016f, nebo v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed soci\u00e1ln\u00ed pomoc atp. Tato zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00ed, pokud by k nim do\u0161lo, by op\u011bt podpo\u0159ila inflaci prost\u0159ednictv\u00edm mezd a ve\u0159ejn\u00fdch v\u00fddaj\u016f, zvy\u0161ov\u00e1n\u00ed n\u00e1klad\u016f atp.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bou\u0159kov\u00e9 mraky p\u0159in\u00e1\u0161ej\u00edc\u00ed inflaci jsou ji\u017e jasn\u011b patrn\u00e9. M\u016f\u017ee se spustit dokonal\u00e1 bou\u0159e, pokud tento proces podporuje nab\u00eddka i popt\u00e1vku. Krom\u011b toho je t\u0159eba myslet i na infla\u010dn\u00ed diferenci\u00e1l se zbytkem zem\u00ed euroz\u00f3ny.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Zd\u00e1 se, \u017ee u\u017e nejsme daleko od psychologick\u00e9 hranice, kdy inflace za\u010d\u00edn\u00e1 znepokojovat ekonomick\u00e9 subjekty. Strach, \u017ee firmy p\u0159enesou zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00ed sv\u00fdch n\u00e1klad\u016f do cen fin\u00e1ln\u00edch produkt\u016f, odbory, kter\u00e9 po\u017eaduj\u00ed masivn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00ed plat\u016f, d\u016fchodci, kter\u00fdm se p\u0159ehodnocen\u00ed jejich d\u016fchod\u016f zd\u00e1 nedostate\u010dn\u00e9. I ve\u0159ejnost s rostouc\u00edm znepokojen\u00edm sleduje stoupaj\u00edc\u00ed trend spot\u0159ebitelsk\u00fdch cen. Co znepokojuje m\u011bnov\u00e9 org\u00e1ny, kter\u00e9 […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":716,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"tdm_status":"","tdm_grid_status":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[10],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-715","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-finance"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/4cool.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/715","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/4cool.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/4cool.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/4cool.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/4cool.cz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=715"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/4cool.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/715\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":718,"href":"https:\/\/4cool.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/715\/revisions\/718"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/4cool.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/716"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/4cool.cz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=715"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/4cool.cz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=715"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/4cool.cz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=715"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}